I know Leinburger didn't come to Columbia to give us all the answers, but it's not enough to say we need rail transit. Rail where? To Baltimore? To DC? An inter-Columbia rail system? Saying "we need rail" means little without the details.
So let's look at the details. I'm not a rail planner, so I'm going to get real simple and just take one easily understood and easily measured example-- commuting patterns related to Howard County. Below are two screenshots taken from the presentation that DPZ gave to the General Plan Task Force a few months back that I love so much. This first map is commuting patterns of Howard County residents.
As you can see from the map, Howard County residents work in every direction. About 16-17% commute to each Montgomery County, Anne Arundel County, Prince Georges County, and Baltimore City. About 13% commute to Baltimore County, and 10% commute to DC proper. Besides that, over one-third of Howard County residents work in Howard County. The next map is commuting patterns of people who work in Howard County.
Likewise, people commute into Howard County from all around as well. Twenty percent of commuters into Howard County are from Anne Arundel County. Carroll, Montgomery, PG County, and Baltimore City each account for 8 - 13% of commuters into the county. DC residents working in Howard account for almost one percent of commuters into the county, and Baltimore County residents are nearly 30% of workers coming into the county.
Our commuting patterns are very fractured, and a lot of that is due to our location between DC and Baltimore; we commute to two center cities and their suburbs. Beyond that, there are hefty job hubs spinkled throughout the metro area-- APL, NSA, Ft. Meade, etc.
Based on this information, where should our rail system go?
The idealistic answer, of course, is "everywhere." I mean, roads are everywhere, right? People go in every direction. But that's not realistic-- it's very expensive to build rail. For example, the proposed Red Line is slated to cost $1.8 billion (in 2009 dollars). The expected cost of the Purple Line was just increased to $1.93 billion. Now, the state of Maryland doesn't pay for all of it; a sizable chunk of money comes from the federal government as well, but it's not like government at any level is flush with cash right now.
It's easy to clamor for rail and I certainly don't think we should preclude any future shots we'd get at rail. After all, a rail extension to Columbia from Baltimore is indeed on the books. But it's something that'll require regional effort-- rail to Columbia is bigger than just Columbia. And that region is currently focused on Red Line (slated to begin construction in 2013), with the Green Line next. The opportunity for rail in Columbia is likely years away, and even then, a single rail line up to Baltimore will not solve all our transportation problems, even if you include the connections that could be made through an extensive rail system in Baltimore.
So what then? I have a few ideas... but I would love to hear your thoughts.
The commuting patterns reflected in the DPZ maps show current commuting patterns. What about future patterns? What will be "on the ground" in 20 years after we have added 1,000,000 more residents to Maryland?
ReplyDeleteOver the next decade or two, what were "edge cities' will develop into "centers of influence." New Carrollton, Silver Spring, Rockville, Towson, and Reisterston are established examples. National Harbor and Konterra are new examples. What about Columbia? If we want to be a center of influence, people must be able to get in and get out - and with our ever growing population, that means fixed rail. Otherwise, we will retain our distinction of being the best example of 1960's suburbs - trying to exist in the 21st Century. That is not a formula for success.
One could look at Europe and see how they have developed a very integrated rail system. We have travelled to numerous places in Europe, and have yet to rent a car! Convenient, fast and safe - and affordable!
Also, if you were to aggregate the commuters in the outgoing chart, over 40% head to DC and Montgomery and Prince George's Counties. Likewise, 30% head to Baltimore City and Baltimore County. Tapping in to the Washington Metro is a non-brainer, in my opinion. Baltimore is more difficult since the great political minds of Baltimore developed a rail system with three different sizes of rail.
Regardless, one must plan for the future. And the future will produce significantly higher populations, which must result in more density. How do we plan now for that future?
WildeLakeMike
I don't have time to delve into this interesting topic, but I'm curious as to why we are looking at 2000 census numbers and not 2010.
ReplyDeletePeter
(For some reason, I cannot log in normally, but this is me, Sarah, for real.)
ReplyDeleteWildeLakeMike: Great points, all. I should add that the maps above are actually 11 years old at this point in time and are already out of date. We need to change the way that we fund infratructure to be more like the way roads are financed. The oft-repeated ratio is 80/20 for roads (that is, for 20% local funding, the feds match 80%) compared to 50/50 for transit. And we wonder why our transit systems lack as compared to our roads! Thanks for your comments.
Peter: That's the info that was presented to us, so I just used it... I wasn't able to find more recent numbers since then. Do you know where I can find them?
I would suggest a plan based on impact. First on the immediate need and then on future development. As Wilde Lake Mike above asked, What will be on the ground after 20 years and another million in MD. This largely depends on where the population centers are and the nature of development. Which is why I've asked about the plans for rail in downtown Columbia. It's just inevitable at some point, but it's cheaper to plan now. If we also know of where the dense centers will be, the easier it will be to plan ahead.
ReplyDeleteThere are several factors as to whether or not these systems will be attractive as well. Whether we look at an expanded metro system with all local stops, or an express system with more localized systems branching from that. for instance, it takes 30-40 minutes to get from the Greenbelt metro station to Gallery Place-Chinatown. That's not a long distance, but the fact that they're all local stops makes it a long trip. For someone coming from Columbia with similar long stops, it may not be worth it. However, the MARC system takes about 30-40 minutes from Savage to DC and 20-30 from Odenton to DC. Once at Union Station, it's fairly easy to get to where one needs to go. From my own experience, that seems to be a better alternative. The more regional express system should cost about the same and an interim bus transit system from those stations to the surrounding area could be in place until a local rail network is built if that is, in fact, needed. Plus, those could be built one at a time, taking into account the resident's concerns and needs. Rather than a one-size-fits-all solution, it would be more of a flexible solution.
In addition, just looking at the north/south paradigm will also be problematic, but we also should keep an eye on the east/west traffic as well. Say, Frederick to Annapolis via Columbia and Ft. Meade. Thereby linking 4 centers of DoD activity as an example. Several with a way to get to DC and the Pentagon. DoD has made sustainability a priority and the funding potential would be easier if DoD was also pushing for the plan. As you mentioned, federal funding is being squeezed, but not many people are taking advantage of the sustainability reports from the Pentagon. Considering the dependence of this region's economy on defense spending at this time, it would be a good idea to get them on our side in any lobbying effort.
A state wide-rail network is a very expensive dream, but one that would put Maryland in a great economic position for the next generation or two. It will cost tens of billions of dollars to create a new rail network from Frederick to say, Annapolis and from DC to Baltimore, all with stops in downtown Columbia. But it would be such a growth generator for our state, that it would pay for itself many times over. Imagine how much money is wasted as people sit in traffic on I-95, the two beltways, route 32, route 100, I-70, and all the other main roads in our area.
ReplyDeleteAs more and more people move to our state (be it Columbia, or any of the other desirable communities in the Baltimore-Washington corridor) those people will have to travel. If there is no new rail network, myriads of billion dollar roads will have to be built to handle the millions of new cars on the road. How about instead of throwing more money at new roads, we build a new rail network?
Remember, people move to where there are transportation options. If we build trains and train stations, we can encourage smart growth, This smart growth will encourage the next generation to live in highly successful walkable urban development, complete with all the positives that come with that style of living (green living, less traffic, more social interactions, etc.).
Chris and Trevor: good stuff both. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteAll of the points made above support the general thesis that Maryland needs a comprehensive rail system in order to compete with other regions in the United States and abroad.
ReplyDeletePaying for that system is going to be difficult, especially since the system will not initially be designed to pay for itself. However, the investment will be well worth the future returns.
Chris Lienberger indicated that two funding sources for such development in other areas of the country are (1) dedicated sales tax and (2) developer contributions. I assume that a portion of the gas tax would also be available. If we could just stop the General Assembly from raiding the Transportation Trust Fund...
In any case, if New Mexico can build a high quality, fixed-rail line from Albuquerque to Santa Fe in 18 months, surely Maryland can come up with a plan that will be necessary for the survival of its quality of life and then start implementing it within the next five years!
WildeLakeMike
I'd also like to remind everyone that these costs do not necessarily need to be all at the same time. The land is probably the most expensive part, which can be done over time. Plus, while solar gets cheaper, there comes a point fairly soon where it will be a value generator. With land that's already acquired, it can be put to good use until construction begins in addition to putting some $$$ into the construction fund.
ReplyDeleteThe expense of even a single rail line is significant-- not only is there the land, but several levels of planning, engineering, construction. If any tunnelling is needed, that gets very expensive per mile. I don't think we are at a point where we can downplay the cost of rail. As WildeLakeMike points out, there are ways to address it, and I don't think the high cost should stop rail, but it needs to be something that is considered and overcome.
ReplyDeleteSomething to keep in mind, Howard County owns the the right-of-way all the way from downtown Columbia to the Savage MARC station (The large grassy median on Broken Land Parkway was put in Rouse's plan for eventual rail.). Building a rail line through this right-of-way would save some serious coinage on a lightrail-line to connect to the MARC-line from Columbia.
ReplyDelete